Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.243645 0.295358 0.358204 0.441139 0.549110 0.686893 8.792769e-01
2025-05-04 0.163490 0.215806 0.286703 0.392384 0.550565 0.786571 1.181868e+00
2025-05-11 0.114807 0.161859 0.231351 0.345862 0.539153 0.871550 1.535860e+00
2025-05-18 0.081673 0.121308 0.184043 0.296430 0.506962 0.918892 1.895712e+00
2025-05-25 0.059894 0.092902 0.148292 0.254988 0.474477 0.959266 2.322958e+00
2025-06-01 0.047624 0.077119 0.129615 0.238615 0.486467 1.113354 3.276327e+00
2025-06-08 0.038837 0.065389 0.115265 0.226403 0.505016 1.314328 4.811796e+00
2025-06-15 0.032601 0.056937 0.105063 0.219966 0.537867 1.607515 7.605231e+00
2025-06-22 0.027745 0.050097 0.096438 0.214514 0.574148 1.981112 1.257073e+01
2025-06-29 0.023202 0.042989 0.085558 0.199813 0.576485 2.255322 1.899686e+01
2025-07-06 0.018058 0.033783 0.068091 0.162022 0.481399 1.981541 1.887127e+01
2025-07-13 0.015846 0.030379 0.063230 0.157899 0.506946 2.397166 3.280391e+01
2025-07-20 0.014163 0.027939 0.060417 0.159964 0.565909 3.216936 7.678132e+01
2025-07-27 0.012883 0.026165 0.058859 0.165801 0.652618 4.610525 2.465943e+02
2025-08-03 0.011581 0.024105 0.056085 0.166768 0.723107 6.316289 9.424097e+02
2025-08-10 0.010223 0.021675 0.051747 0.160474 0.751944 7.878313 3.875216e+03
2025-08-17 0.009006 0.019391 0.047309 0.152083 0.762867 9.467366 2.308738e+04
2025-08-24 0.008226 0.018072 0.045375 0.153090 0.843814 13.455921 6.268238e+06
2025-08-31 0.007551 0.016910 0.043642 0.154358 0.935753 19.651274 NaN
2025-09-07 0.007001 0.015985 0.042433 0.157639 1.058798 30.792333 NaN
2025-09-14 0.006501 0.015113 0.041191 0.160364 1.191910 49.527835 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005919 0.013925 0.038629 0.155253 1.238667 67.718994 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005075 0.011901 0.032861 0.130953 1.025052 51.937719 NaN